Short-term lead prices are expected to hover at highs, with attention on the realization of actual supply increments of lead ingots. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,993/mt, touched a low of $1,991/mt early in the session and then fluctuated upward; it maintained its upward trend during the European session, reaching a high of $2,013/mt, and finally closed at $2,012/mt, up 0.85%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened at 17,620 yuan/mt, touched a high of 17,635 yuan/mt early in the session before falling to a low of 17,460 yuan/mt, and saw a slight rebound late in the session, finally closing at 17,525 yuan/mt, up 0.31%.

On the macro front:

The US increased pressure on Venezuela, with Trump seeking land-based action on drug grounds. The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was released. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold a press conference on the morning of the 24th to introduce and interpret the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions regarding the inclusion of Chinese enterprises in the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia. Ministry of Commerce: He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US.

:

SHFE lead rose sharply, especially in the latter half of the trading session, climbing to a nearly seven-month high. Suppliers refused to budge on prices while selling, and downstream enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with some rigid demand primarily met through long-term contract purchases. Additionally, the lead import arbitrage window opened, leading to an increase in import lead quotations, with some import refined lead offered at ports at a premium of $85/mt. Domestic secondary refined lead ex-works quotations were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and some suppliers were strongly reluctant to sell.

Inventory: On October 23, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,175 mt to 244,125 mt; as of October 23, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM fell to 31,900 mt, down 5,700 mt from October 16 and down 5,800 mt from October 20, reaching the lowest level since September 5, 2024.

Today's lead price forecast:

Recently, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises stabilized with an upward trend, and downstream enterprises were active in procurement. However, the production resumption progress of secondary lead enterprises was relatively slow, causing more rigid downstream demand to shift towards the primary lead sector. Plant inventories of smelters in regions such as Henan and Hunan declined. Simultaneously, tight logistics vehicle availability persisted in regions like Inner Mongolia and Hebei. The situation of queuing for lead ingot pick-up in Henan continued from last week into this week, leading some downstream enterprises to continue consuming lead ingot inventories from surrounding social warehouses, resulting in a further decline in social inventory of lead ingots. Furthermore, the significant rise in lead prices yesterday improved lead smelting profits, which may stimulate faster production resumption and output increases by lead smelters. Concurrently, the opening of the lead import arbitrage window led to an increase in import lead quotations in the lead market. Attention should be paid to the realization of actual supply increments of lead ingots subsequently. However, production or imports still require a certain time cycle. In the short term, social inventory of lead ingots is expected to remain low, and lead prices are likely to hover at highs.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.